China Meteorological Administration: " extremely cold in millennium " this winter Possibility is minimum

China Meteorological Administration: " extremely cold in millennium " this winter Possibility is minimum
The core is pointed out: News is called Europe or meets severe winter in millennium now, China needs to watch out for the low-temperature weather. Foreign expert warns, Northern Hemisphere may face " meet in millennium " this year Extremely low temperature. However, the national climate Song LianChun, director of centre of China Meteorological Administration claims, the reason why the foreign scholar predicts lacks scientific basis. Chinese experts generally think, the mankind is still unable to be made and predicts the extreme weather reliablied. Future week, influenced by the continuously cold air, 4-8 �� will fall over a large area in Middle Eastern Department of our country, office ground is over 10 ��. The effect of drop in the temperature like the dominoes has strengthened people's conjecture of severe winter. A foreign expert warns even more, Northern Hemisphere may face " meet in millennium " this year Extremely low temperature. " meet severe winter in millennium " Will really come? The reporter proposed three queries yesterday, and invited authoritative department and expert to understand. China Meteorological Administration: It has news to claim that the reason why the foreign scholar predicts lacks scientific basis, " La Nina " The incident upsets the warm current activity, Europe or meeting severe winter in millennium now, China needs to watch out for the low-temperature weather. Foreign expert points out, the reason why present such extreme weather, because in " La Nina " The phenomenon influences, the activity speed of warm current of Gulf of Mexico from the North Atlantic Ocean is slowed down. This stream of ocean currents are one of the key elements keeping climate of the earth balanced, but the scale has been lessened to half that only left in the past in recent years, it is unable to produce the utility of the cold air of going down south with the polar region into it. However, the national climate Song LianChun, director of centre of China Meteorological Administration claims, the reason why the foreign scholar predicts lacks scientific basis. Existing research shows, " La Nina " It is the change of different time yardstick with the warm current in Gulf of Mexico. " La Nina " It is the annual border yardstick, the fluctuation year by year rises and falls relatively largely, and the warm current of the Atlantic Ocean is relatively stable and mainly shown as the long cycle change of more than 10 years, the near observation of decades reveals there is only a very weak reduction trend in the warm current in the Atlantic Ocean. Studying and still lacking enough scientific evidences both at home and abroad at present proves, " La Nina " There is a direct relation with the warm current in Gulf of Mexico. Took Europe as examples, since 1986, took place 4 times " La Nina " The incident, only have in " La Nina " twice Winter when the incident happened present cold winter. " La Nina " The European temperature generally obviously lean towards warm 1-4 �� more long-termly, and does not appear colder during the incident. Is it extremely cold to appear under the global warming background? The global warming is a main trend, " meet severe winter in millennium " Minimum reporter learns from China Meteorological Administration possibility, the present global climate is still in continuation to " make warm " Stage. It shows to observe the data, the climate warming trend in the last hundred years is a global long-term course. Especially since middle period of the 20th century, the temperature was in the trend of rising all the time in winter in Europe. Under the background of the global warming of the whole world, " meet severe winter in millennium " Possibility minimum. What deserves to be mentioned is, compared with weather forecast of a middle or short term, the climate predicts it is more complicated, the difficulty is greater, it is a world difficult problem. "The reason for influencing the climate but it is intricate. The sun activity, marine situation, volcanism, ecology of the earth's surface and human activity,etc. will influence the climate, people are very limited to their understanding, the climate state more difficult to predict several months of future, a few years even decades accurately. " Mei Yan, Deputy Bureau Director of China Meteorological Administration, expresses when being interviewed by reporter a few days ago. Whether now is predicted " meet in millennium " Ability? Experts of our country generally think, the mankind is still unable to be made and predicts the extreme weather reliablied Climate experts of our country generally think, because of the limitation of climate anticipation, the mankind is still unable to make reliable prediction to the extreme weather climate incident. To " severe winter of millennium " The prediction of such a very extreme incident, lack science and technology and means that can trust even more. According to the past 60 years " La Nina " It shows to influence, influence the factor with unusual temperature in winter of our country, except " La Nina " The changes of tropical ocean and subtropical jet stream high pressure caused are outside, the climate to the winter of our country of circulation situation of hitting high latitude in Eurasia is with big influence. The national climate centre analyzes to predict, temperature of the greater part of our country is close in the same period long-termly this winter, but changes in temperature change range relatively large, get rid of some area temperature might on the low side than long-term the same period, the phased strong situation that lowers the temperature appears.

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